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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$473.8K
Liquidity
$214.1K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $10K in 24h volume, and $57.6K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$10K
Liquidity
$57.6K
This market asks whether Elon Musk will strike an agreement to buy Ryanair by the end of June 30, 2026. It is worth watching because the question turns on a very specific corporate event: not whether Musk joked about the idea, but whether a real acquisition agreement is announced or credibly reported.
Ryanair is the Irish low-cost airline group, and the title centers on Elon Musk, either directly or through an entity he controls or majority owns. The market resolves Yes only if there is an agreement to buy Ryanair, or a qualifying merger agreement, by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Importantly, the deal does not have to close for a Yes outcome; the announcement or confirmed agreement is enough.
The uncertainty comes from the gap between a public comment and an actual transaction. Musk’s January 16 post suggested that buying Ryanair might be a “good idea,” but that kind of remark is very different from a formal bid, board approval, or signed deal. Readers are essentially weighing whether the market is just pricing a headline-worthy joke or the remote possibility that the comment leads to something more concrete.
The biggest price moves would come from official statements by Elon Musk, Ryanair, or a company he controls, especially anything that mentions an offer, merger, takeover approach, or negotiations. Credible reporting that a bid is being considered could also move the market, since the rules allow a consensus of credible reporting as a resolution source. On the other hand, denials, silence as the deadline approaches, or evidence that no talks are happening would tend to reinforce the No side.
The current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
+0.1%
24h Vol
$473.8K
Liquidity
$214.1K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe key things to verify are the exact resolution deadline, the identity of the buyer, and whether any announced transaction qualifies under the market rules. Because the primary source is official information from Musk and Ryanair, readers should look for direct company disclosures first, then for a broad consensus of credible reporting if official confirmation never comes. The main ambiguity to watch is whether a transaction involves Musk personally, an entity he leads or majority owns, or a merger structure that still counts as a qualifying agreement.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $10K in 24h volume, and $57.6K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
0.4%
No
99.7%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
On January 16, Elon Musk posted that buying Ryanair might be a "good idea." You can read more about that here: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2012172825444913299 This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that Elon Musk, either personally or through an entity led or majority owned by him, enters into an agreement to buy Ryanair by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announced agreement between Elon Musk and Ryanair will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed. An agreement to merge with a qualifying entity will count toward "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Elon Musk and Ryanair, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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