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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$479.4K
Liquidity
$247.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will GameStop acquire eBay?. The market currently shows a live probability of 16%, $12K in 24h volume, and $76K in liquidity.
Probability
16%
24h Volume
$12K
Liquidity
$76K
This market asks whether GameStop and eBay will end up in an official acquisition or merger announcement before the end of 2026. It is worth watching because it ties together two recognizable U.S. public companies with very different business models, and the resolution depends on a formal corporate statement rather than rumor or market chatter.
The question here is narrow: will eBay be acquired by, or merged with, GameStop, or will GameStop gain controlling ownership of eBay by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The rules say a qualifying announcement from either company within that window is enough for a Yes, even if the transaction closes later. The market also includes parent companies if either firm is acting through a subsidiary, but ordinary minority investments or partial sales that do not create control do not count.
eBay is a long-running online marketplace company, while GameStop is best known as a video game retailer and meme-stock name, so the combination is unusual enough to create real uncertainty. Readers may be weighing whether either company would have strategic reasons to combine, whether there could be a controlling stake sale, and whether any announcement would be large enough to satisfy the market’s control-based rule. The disagreement being priced is not just about whether the companies are related at all, but whether a formal, qualifying corporate action will actually be announced on time.
The clearest price-moving events would be an official press release, SEC filing, or other company statement from eBay or GameStop saying that one will acquire the other, merge, or obtain a controlling interest. Credible reporting that points to active negotiations, a signed agreement, or a disclosed tender offer could also move the market if it is strong enough to suggest an announcement is imminent. By contrast, vague strategic reviews, partnership rumors, or small investments without control would be less relevant under the rules.
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24h Vol
$479.4K
Liquidity
$247.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 16% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before this market resolves, the key thing to verify is whether there has been a public announcement that meets the control standard described in the contract. Readers should check the exact wording of any release, since a transaction only counts if it is an acquisition, merger, or control transfer involving eBay or eBay Inc. and GameStop or its parent company. The deadline is December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, and the final source of truth is the companies’ official disclosures, with credible reporting used only as a backup if the announcement language is ambiguous.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will GameStop acquire eBay?. The market currently shows a live probability of 16%, $12K in 24h volume, and $76K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
15.5%
No
84.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that eBay will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with GameStop, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mergers or acquisitions involving eBay or its parent company, eBay Inc., and GameStop or its parent company (if applicable), will qualify. An announcement by eBay or GameStop within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as GameStop acquires a controlling interest in eBay. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from eBay and GameStop; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 16%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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