
+0.1%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$458.3K
Liquidity
$207.8K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
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Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $12,000 by end of December?. The market currently shows a live probability of 5%, $42K in 24h volume, and $26.1K in liquidity.
Probability
5%
24h Volume
$42K
Liquidity
$26.1K
This market asks whether the CME Gold futures contract, ticker GC, will post an official settlement price at or above $12,000 on any eligible trading day before the end of December 2026. It is centered on the front-month Gold futures contract, not spot gold or intraday prices, so the exact CME settlement print is what matters. Because gold is a major macro asset and the threshold is far above current levels, the market is focused on whether prices can reach an unusually high milestone before year-end.
The event being measured is specific: on any trading day by the final trading day of December 2026, does the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures reach $12,000 or higher? CME Gold futures trade in designated delivery months, and the “Active Month” changes automatically based on CME’s contract schedule, so the market follows whichever front month is officially active at the time. Only the settlement price published by CME Group counts, and only as first published for that day; later corrections do not change the outcome.
Gold is often watched as a store of value, a hedge against inflation or currency weakness, and a barometer for broad market stress, so a large move toward this level would be meaningful. The uncertainty here is not just about where gold trades day to day, but whether a specific CME settlement benchmark can cross a very high threshold before the deadline. Traders are effectively debating whether macro conditions, central bank policy, geopolitical tension, or persistent demand can push the front-month futures contract to that price zone in time.
Anything that shifts the path of gold futures can move this market, especially changes in interest-rate expectations, inflation data, dollar strength, and safe-haven demand. Because the rule uses the CME settlement for the active front month, the relevant price can also be influenced by futures curve moves, contract roll timing, and how the CME settles that day’s official benchmark. A sharp rally in gold futures or, conversely, a period of stable or falling prices would be the most direct forces changing the market’s odds.
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+0.1%
24h Vol
$458.3K
Liquidity
$207.8K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 5% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should check the CME settlement page for Gold (GC) futures, not spot gold quotes or intraday highs, since those do not decide this market. The key details to verify are which contract month is the Active Month on each trading day, whether CME published an official settlement for that day, and whether the first-published settlement is at or above $12,000 before December 31, 2026. Any weekend, holiday, or closure day is ignored, and the market resolves from the CME figure as originally posted rather than from later revisions.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $12,000 by end of December?. The market currently shows a live probability of 5%, $42K in 24h volume, and $26.1K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
5%
No
95.1%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 5%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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