
+0.1%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$458.3K
Liquidity
$207.8K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 79%, $2.9K in 24h volume, and $6.3K in liquidity.
Probability
79%
24h Volume
$2.9K
Liquidity
$6.3K
This market asks whether CME Gold futures, specifically the active-month GC contract, will settle at $4,300 or lower on any eligible trading day before the end of June 2026. Gold is watched closely because it often reacts to inflation expectations, central bank policy, risk aversion, and shifts in the U.S. dollar, so a move of this size would reflect a major change in market conditions.
The outcome is tied to the official CME settlement price for the Gold (GC) active month, not to intraday highs, lows, or closing trades. The active month means the nearest eligible CME delivery month that is not the spot month, and it can change automatically as the contract rolls from one month to the next. The market resolves Yes if that official settlement price is at or below $4,300 on any trading day from market creation through the final trading day in June 2026; otherwise it resolves No.
There is real uncertainty about whether gold can reach that level by the deadline because futures prices can be pushed by changing interest-rate expectations, macroeconomic stress, and commodity market flows. Traders may disagree on how far a rally can extend over the coming months and whether gold will ever settle at or below the stated threshold during the resolution window. This market is essentially pricing the odds that a specific CME settlement print will meet the target before June ends.
The biggest price-moving events are official or market-moving developments that change expectations for gold futures, such as Federal Reserve policy shifts, inflation data, major currency moves, or sudden risk-off episodes. Because the market keys off the CME settlement for the active month, the exact contract roll date also matters: a change in the active month can alter which futures price is used for resolution. Any sharp move in the front-month GC contract toward or below $4,300 on a published settlement day would directly affect the market.
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+0.1%
24h Vol
$458.3K
Liquidity
$207.8K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 79% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should check the CME settlement page for the active-month Gold (GC) contract, since that is the sole source of truth for resolution and the first published settlement for each trading day is what counts. It is important to confirm which contract month is active on the day in question, because the active month changes automatically on the first position date and the market does not use intraday quotes or later corrections. The deadline is the final trading day of June 2026, and non-trading days such as weekends or holidays are ignored.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 79%, $2.9K in 24h volume, and $6.3K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
78.5%
No
21.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or below the listed price on any trading day between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Probability signal
The current price implies a strong favorite, so new information would need to be meaningful to move the market sharply.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 79%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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