
+0.1%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$458.4K
Liquidity
$212.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $500 in June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 18%, $3.2K in 24h volume, and $308 in liquidity.
Probability
18%
24h Volume
$3.2K
Liquidity
$308
This market asks whether Meta Platforms’ stock will trade down to a $500 low at any point during June 2026, based on 1-minute candle data. Because the threshold is close to a round-number level for a large-cap tech stock, it is the kind of event that can turn on ordinary day-to-day volatility rather than a dramatic headline.
The question is narrowly defined around Meta Platforms, Inc. (ticker META) and the month of June 2026. It resolves to Yes if any regular-session 1-minute candle for META shows a final Low price at or below $500; otherwise it resolves to No, using Pyth’s published data exactly as shown, without rounding. Only regular trading hours count, and the resolution window ends after the close on June 30, 2026, with the market settling from the Pyth historical chart for META/USD.
A stock can touch a price level intraday even if it does not finish the day there, so this market is really about whether META ever prints a $500 low during the month. That gives readers a way to think about how much downside volatility the stock may experience over a short window, especially around earnings, broad market moves, or sector-wide swings. The disagreement priced here is not about Meta’s business long term, but about whether the stock’s trading range will include that specific level before month-end.
The biggest price-moving events for this market are regular-session moves in META itself and in the broader U.S. equity market, especially any sharp rerating of large-cap technology shares. Company-specific catalysts such as earnings, guidance, major product or AI spending announcements, or regulatory headlines can push the stock toward or away from the $500 line. Because the market keys off intraday lows, even a brief selloff during a volatile session could matter as much as the closing price.
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+0.1%
24h Vol
$458.4K
Liquidity
$212.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 18% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The main thing to verify is the source and rule set: this market uses Pyth’s META/USD historical 1-minute candles, and only the published Low price during regular exchange hours counts. Readers should also watch for corporate actions such as stock splits, since the rules say the threshold and historical data will be adjusted on a split-adjusted basis. The deadline is the end of June 2026, and any ambiguity would come from whether a qualifying low was recorded in a regular-session candle, not from where the stock closed.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $500 in June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 18%, $3.2K in 24h volume, and $308 in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
18.3%
No
81.8%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 1, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during June 2026, any 1-minute candle for Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.META%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.META%2FUSD?t=1773432000) If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 18%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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