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😬 Cooling⚡ Tight
9%
-5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
24h Vol
$1.5M
Liquidity
$777.4K
Spread
1%
6/15/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $39.9K in 24h volume, and $338.1K in liquidity.
Probability
3%
24h Volume
$39.9K
Liquidity
$338.1K
This market asks whether Romeu Zema will emerge as the winner of Brazil’s 2026 presidential race. Zema is best known as the governor of Minas Gerais, one of Brazil’s largest and most politically important states, so his national profile matters here even though the election is still well ahead. The result will hinge on Brazil’s two-round presidential system and on the official count for the 2026 vote.
The event in question is Brazil’s presidential election scheduled for October 4, 2026, with a possible runoff if no candidate wins outright in the first round. This market is specifically about whether Romeu Zema is the candidate who is officially declared the winner, including any second round that may be needed. If the final outcome is still unresolved by June 30, 2027, the market rules say it resolves to “Other.”
There is genuine uncertainty because Brazilian presidential elections can shift as coalitions form, campaigns take shape, and candidates define themselves over a long runway to election day. Zema is a recognizable regional executive, but winning the presidency requires broad national appeal, party support, and a strong showing in both the first round and any runoff. The market is pricing the question of whether he can translate state-level prominence into a national victory.
Price can move if Zema formally enters the race, secures or loses important endorsements, or becomes a leading name in polling and official campaign dynamics. Changes in the broader field also matter: a fragmented opposition, a strong incumbent-aligned candidate, or a sudden coalition shift could all affect his chances. Because this market includes the second round, any development that changes runoff expectations is especially important.
The current market price implies roughly a 3% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
-5%
24h Vol
$1.5M
Liquidity
$777.4K
Spread
1%
6/15/2026
View marketThe key source of truth is the official election result from Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE), with credible reporting used only if the result is already clear and there is no ambiguity. Readers should watch the first-round vote, whether a runoff is required, and the final certified winner announced by the TSE. The main ambiguity to check is whether Zema is actually the listed winner in the official election result, since the market resolves on that final certified outcome rather than on early projections or polling alone.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $39.9K in 24h volume, and $338.1K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
3.3%
No
96.8%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Oct 4, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 3%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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