economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.2M
Liquidity
$2.2M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 2%, $46.5K in 24h volume, and $264.3K in liquidity.
Probability
2%
24h Volume
$46.5K
Liquidity
$264.3K
This market asks whether Ronaldo Caiado will emerge as the winner of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election. It is tied to one of Latin America’s biggest votes, where the combination of a large electorate and Brazil’s runoff system can make the path to victory depend on more than a first-round lead.
Ronaldo Caiado is the named candidate in the question, and the market is about whether he will be the official winner of Brazil’s presidential race scheduled for October 4, 2026. The market includes any second round, which matters because Brazil’s presidential system can require a runoff if no one wins outright in the first round. If the result is still not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other."
There is uncertainty because presidential elections in Brazil can shift quickly as campaigns develop, coalitions form, and runoff dynamics come into play. Caiado is a recognizable political figure, but winning the presidency requires broad national support, so the market is really pricing the difference between being a plausible contender and actually finishing first after all votes are counted. Readers may care because this is a high-profile national election with major implications for Brazil’s future direction.
The price can move if Caiado formally enters the race, gains or loses backing from major parties, or becomes a stronger or weaker presence in pre-election polling and endorsements. It can also move around official campaign milestones, debates, candidate qualification decisions, or any sign that he is or is not positioned for a runoff. After voting, partial returns, coalition behavior, and any official TSE reporting that clarifies the winner would be especially important.
The current market price implies roughly a 2% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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24h Vol
$1.2M
Liquidity
$2.2M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe key source of truth here is the official result as reported by Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE), which the market says will control if there is any ambiguity. Before resolution, readers should verify whether the election is decided in the first round or through a runoff, and whether Caiado is the actual listed winner in the final official result. The deadline matters too: if the race is unresolved past June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market goes to "Other," so a delayed certification would affect how this page settles.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 2%, $46.5K in 24h volume, and $264.3K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
2.5%
No
97.6%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Oct 4, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 2%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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