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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$479.4K
Liquidity
$247.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO?. The market currently shows a live probability of 89%, $6.1K in 24h volume, and $6.2K in liquidity.
Probability
89%
24h Volume
$6.1K
Liquidity
$6.2K
This market is about one of the biggest possible IPO questions in recent finance: how much cash SpaceX would raise if it goes public, and whether that number lands in the $70 billion to $80 billion band. Because SpaceX is closely watched and any listing would be a major capital markets event, the offering size itself matters almost as much as the fact of an IPO. The page is specifically tied to the gross proceeds at IPO pricing, not later trading performance, and the market stays open until the company completes an IPO or the 2026 deadline passes.
The question here is whether SpaceX’s initial public offering, if and when it happens, will be priced so that the company raises between $70 billion and $80 billion in total gross proceeds. The resolution depends on the final offering price and the number of shares sold, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. That means the market is not asking about SpaceX’s valuation in the abstract; it is asking about the actual dollar amount raised at IPO pricing. If no IPO happens by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest bracket under the stated rules.
SpaceX is unusual even by large-cap standards, so the size of any future offering is inherently uncertain. The company could choose a smaller flotation, raise more through a larger primary offering, or structure the deal with a mix of primary and secondary shares, all of which would affect the proceeds figure used here. Readers care because the chosen raise size can signal how ambitious the company and its bankers are being, and it can also reflect market conditions at the time of pricing. The disagreement in this market is not about whether SpaceX is important, but about where the final offering amount will land if the IPO goes ahead.
Any credible indication about the IPO structure can move this market, especially details on the number of shares offered, the final pricing range, and whether the company is targeting a primary raise near or above the $70 billion threshold. Since the rules count gross proceeds at pricing, changes in the headline valuation matter only insofar as they affect the actual dollars raised. A filed prospectus, an updated filing, or reliable reporting that narrows the expected offering size would be especially important. The market can also react if it becomes clearer that the company is using a large primary component, a meaningful secondary component, or a smaller deal that would fall below the range.
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24h Vol
$479.4K
Liquidity
$247.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 89% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The main source of truth is the final prospectus filed with the SEC, because the market resolves from the total gross proceeds disclosed there at the time of pricing. Readers should check whether the filing states the amount raised clearly, and whether any secondary shares are included as part of the IPO offering rather than separate private transactions. The rules exclude overallotment shares, so a greenshoe would not count toward the bracket. It is also worth watching for the deadline: if there is no completed IPO by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, this market resolves to the lowest bracket, and if the final amount lands exactly on a boundary, the higher range wins.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO?. The market currently shows a live probability of 89%, $6.1K in 24h volume, and $6.2K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
89%
No
11%
Polymarket has not provided a clear end date for this market yet.
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing. The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered. Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered. If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a strong favorite, so new information would need to be meaningful to move the market sharply.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 89%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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