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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$479.4K
Liquidity
$247.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $650.7 in 24h volume, and $11.3K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$650.7
Liquidity
$11.3K
This market asks whether SpaceX will begin public trading in November 2026, using Eastern Time for the month cutoff. It is aimed at the timing of the IPO itself, not at rumors, filings, or a stated intention to go public.
SpaceX is the private aerospace and launch company founded by Elon Musk, and an initial public offering would mean its shares start trading on a public exchange. For this market, the key question is the calendar month in 2026 when that public trading actually begins, with the result determined from the primary exchange once the IPO has happened. If SpaceX has not completed an IPO by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "No IPO before 2027."
SpaceX has long been discussed as a potential public company, but a listing depends on the company’s own timing, market conditions, and exchange process. That creates a concrete uncertainty around whether the first trading date will land in November 2026, and the market is pricing the gap between speculation and an actual listed debut. The distinction matters because this page does not count announcements, SEC filings, or scheduling; it only cares about when shares start trading.
The biggest price-moving developments are official steps that make a 2026 listing more or less plausible, such as a filed registration statement, a confirmed exchange listing timeline, or a formal statement from SpaceX about timing. Anything that suggests the company is delaying, postponing, or not pursuing a near-term public debut would likely push the market away from November 2026. Because the rule requires public trading to begin, a filing alone would not settle the market, but it could change expectations if it points to a specific launch window.
The current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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24h Vol
$479.4K
Liquidity
$247.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe source of truth is the primary exchange on which SpaceX would trade, since the market resolves only after public trading begins there. Readers should check the exact listing date and month in ET, and not confuse it with IPO announcements, confidential filings, or a tentative roadshow schedule. The main ambiguity risk is a late-year offering that prices in one month but does not begin trading until another, so the actual first trading day is what matters.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $650.7 in 24h volume, and $11.3K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
0.2%
No
99.8%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve based on the calendar month (ET) in 2026 in which SpaceX’s initial public offering (IPO) occurs. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2027". Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun. Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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