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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$478.1K
Liquidity
$245.2K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on IPO day?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $8.8K in 24h volume, and $43.9K in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$8.8K
Liquidity
$43.9K
This market is about one very specific IPO-day milestone for SpaceX: whether the company’s market value at the close on its first day of trading lands between $1.0 trillion and $1.2 trillion. Because SpaceX is still a private company and an IPO has not yet occurred, the main issue is not just valuation, but whether the listing happens at all by the deadline.
The question is tied to SpaceX’s first day as a publicly traded company, if that day arrives before December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution depends on the company’s market capitalization at the official closing price on that first trading day, using the number of shares outstanding times the closing share price. If there is no SpaceX IPO by the deadline, the market resolves to the separate outcome labeled "No IPO before 2028."
SpaceX is one of the most closely watched private companies in the market because its scale, revenue base, and strategic role in space launch, satellites, and related infrastructure have led many observers to speculate about a very large public-market valuation. The uncertainty here is twofold: whether SpaceX goes public before the cutoff, and if it does, whether the opening-day valuation lands inside this unusually high bracket rather than below or above it. That is why the market is effectively pricing both the timing of an IPO and the size of the debut valuation.
The biggest price mover is any concrete step toward an IPO, such as formal filings, listing plans, or an announced first trading day, because those would make the valuation question more immediate. The market would also react to any disclosed share count, offering structure, or price range that helps narrow the implied capitalization at listing. If no IPO-related milestone appears as the deadline approaches, the “No IPO before 2028” outcome becomes the central reference point for resolution.
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24h Vol
$478.1K
Liquidity
$245.2K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key source of truth is the primary exchange’s official listing page on SpaceX’s first trading day, since the rules say resolution is based there first. Readers should watch for the actual closing price, the reported shares outstanding used for market-cap calculation, and whether the first day is a full session or an abbreviated one. If the closing figure is not shown on the exchange page, the market rules allow another reliable source, and if exactly on a bracket boundary, the higher range wins. The date to keep in mind is December 31, 2027, because after that the market can resolve to the no-IPO outcome if SpaceX has not listed.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on IPO day?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $8.8K in 24h volume, and $43.9K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
1%
No
99%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2027. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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