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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$477.9K
Liquidity
$246.6K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on IPO day?. The market currently shows a live probability of 2%, $9.1K in 24h volume, and $42.9K in liquidity.
Probability
2%
24h Volume
$9.1K
Liquidity
$42.9K
This market is about how large SpaceX’s public-market value would be on the company’s first day of trading, specifically whether the closing market cap lands in the $1.2 trillion to $1.4 trillion band. It is a narrow threshold question tied to a possible SpaceX IPO, so the main issue is not just whether the company lists, but what valuation the market gives it at the close.
The market resolves from SpaceX’s market capitalization at the closing price on its first trading day. Market cap is the company’s share count multiplied by the official closing share price, and the title asks whether that total falls between $1.2T and $1.4T at the close. If SpaceX does not have an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market resolves to “No IPO before 2028.” If the closing value lands exactly on a boundary between brackets, the rules say to use the higher range.
SpaceX is a private company with a valuation that depends on future financing, listing terms, share count, and the price investors are willing to pay on the first day of trading. That creates uncertainty not only about whether an IPO happens by the deadline, but also about whether the opening public valuation will be high enough to clear a very large bracket like $1.2T to $1.4T. Readers following this market are effectively watching whether SpaceX’s debut would come in as an extraordinary mega-cap listing or somewhere below that range.
The biggest price drivers are any confirmed IPO filing, listing date, or exchange information that clarifies whether SpaceX will actually go public before the deadline. Signals about the number of shares offered, expected pricing range, or a revised valuation in official documents can change expectations for the first-day market cap. Because the resolution depends on the closing price and share count on day one, anything that changes the final public float, first-day trading range, or whether the listing occurs at all can move this market.
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24h Vol
$477.9K
Liquidity
$246.6K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 2% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key items to verify are whether a SpaceX IPO happens before December 31, 2027, and, if it does, what the official closing price and share count are on the first trading day. The rules say the primary exchange’s official listing page is the main source of truth, with another reliable source only if the relevant figure is not displayed. One important ambiguity to watch is how the market treats an interrupted or abbreviated session: if no official closing price is published that day, the next trading day with an official close becomes the reference day for resolution.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on IPO day?. The market currently shows a live probability of 2%, $9.1K in 24h volume, and $42.9K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
2.1%
No
97.9%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2027. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 2%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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