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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$477.9K
Liquidity
$246.6K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?. The market currently shows a live probability of 18%, $3.8K in 24h volume, and $20.5K in liquidity.
Probability
18%
24h Volume
$3.8K
Liquidity
$20.5K
This market is asking whether SpaceX would debut on the public market with an enormous valuation: between $1.8 trillion and $2.0 trillion at the closing price on its first trading day. It is a closely watched finance question because a first-day market cap in that range would put SpaceX among the most valuable public companies ever, and the market will only resolve if an IPO actually happens before the stated deadline.
The event in question is SpaceX’s first day of trading, if and when the company goes public. The key measurement is the company’s market capitalization at the official close on IPO day, calculated from the closing share price multiplied by shares outstanding, and the outcome here is specifically whether that figure lands between $1.8T and $2.0T. If there is no SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the separate outcome "No IPO before 2028."
SpaceX is a private company with a valuation that has long been the subject of speculation, but an IPO price and first-day trading value can differ sharply from private-marked estimates. That creates uncertainty about both whether the company lists by the deadline and, if it does, where the opening public-market valuation lands relative to a very high bracket like $1.8T–$2.0T. Traders are effectively pricing disagreement over timing, investor demand, and whether the first official market value will be above, below, or inside that range.
Any confirmed IPO filing, listing plan, or change in the expected timing of a SpaceX public offering would be the biggest driver, because this market cannot resolve “Yes” without an IPO first. News that changes expected demand or valuation expectations for the offering could also move it, especially if it affects whether the first-day close looks more likely to land near the lower, middle, or upper end of the range. The market can also shift if the wording of the IPO structure, share count, or exchange listing details becomes clearer, since those determine how the first-day market cap will be calculated.
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24h Vol
$477.9K
Liquidity
$246.6K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 18% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before resolution, readers should check whether SpaceX actually lists on a public exchange by the deadline and whether an official closing price is published for the first trading day. The rules say the primary exchange’s official listing page is the main source, with another reliable source used only if the relevant figure is not displayed, so the exact official close matters more than intraday trading. It is also important to note the fallback rule for an interrupted or abbreviated session: if no official closing price is published that day, the next trading day with an official close can count as the first day of trading for this market.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?. The market currently shows a live probability of 18%, $3.8K in 24h volume, and $20.5K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
17.5%
No
82.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2027. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 18%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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