
+0.1%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$458.3K
Liquidity
$207.8K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
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Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?. The market currently shows a live probability of 98%, $8.2K in 24h volume, and $34.7K in liquidity.
Probability
98%
24h Volume
$8.2K
Liquidity
$34.7K
This market asks whether SpaceX would finish its first public trading day with a market value above $1 trillion. That makes it a question about the size of a potential SpaceX IPO at the closing bell, not about an intraday high or a private-market estimate. Because the resolution depends on the official first-day closing price and shares outstanding, the exact answer will hinge on the IPO terms rather than headlines or speculation.
The event in question is SpaceX’s first day of trading, if and when the company goes public before the deadline of December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves “Yes” only if SpaceX’s market capitalization at the close of that first trading session is greater than $1 trillion; if the company has no IPO by the deadline, it resolves to the “No IPO before 2028” outcome described in the rules. In simple terms, this is a threshold market about whether the company’s debut valuation clears an unusually large milestone on day one.
SpaceX is one of the most closely watched private companies in the world, so any IPO would attract heavy attention to its opening valuation. The uncertainty is not just whether an IPO happens, but what price the market will assign to the stock once it starts trading and how that translates into total market cap. Readers care because the answer would signal how public investors value SpaceX at its debut, especially relative to the $1 trillion line.
Price moves here are most likely to come from concrete IPO-related developments: a formal filing, an announced offering size, a disclosed share count, a pricing range, and eventually the first-day closing price. The market will also react to anything that changes expectations for timing, such as signs that an IPO is delayed past 2027 or that the company is not planning to list on the expected schedule. Since the rule is based on the closing price and official share count, details in the prospectus or listing documents matter much more than broad sentiment.
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+0.1%
24h Vol
$458.3K
Liquidity
$207.8K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 98% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The most important items to verify are whether SpaceX actually lists on a primary exchange before the deadline and what the official first-day closing price and share count are. The rules say the primary exchange’s official listing page is the main source of truth, with another reliable source used only if the figure is not displayed, so readers should check the listing details rather than secondary commentary. One other wrinkle is the fallback for an interrupted or abbreviated session: if the normal close is not published, the next day with an official close becomes the effective first trading day for resolution purposes.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?. The market currently shows a live probability of 98%, $8.2K in 24h volume, and $34.7K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
98.1%
No
2%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2027. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a strong favorite, so new information would need to be meaningful to move the market sharply.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 98%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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