
+0.1%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$458.4K
Liquidity
$212.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 18%, $9.1K in 24h volume, and $3K in liquidity.
Probability
18%
24h Volume
$9.1K
Liquidity
$3K
This market asks whether SPY, the ETF that tracks the S&P 500, will print a 1-minute high of $770 at any point during June 2026. It is a straightforward price-threshold question, but the answer depends on a very specific data feed and trading-session rule, so the exact resolution method matters as much as the number itself.
The title refers to SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, which is commonly used as a liquid stand-in for the broader U.S. stock market. For a Yes resolution, Pyth must show at least one regular-session 1-minute candle in June 2026 with a final High value at or above $770; if that never happens during the month, the market resolves No. The market ends after June 2026, with resolution tied to the historical 1-minute candle data on Pyth rather than an exchange close or headline price.
A move to $770 would represent a large upward move from current levels, so the market is really asking how far the S&P 500 can extend in a single month and whether intraday highs can push through that threshold. Traders may disagree because short-term equity paths are driven by earnings, inflation data, Federal Reserve expectations, and broader risk appetite, all of which can change quickly. The listed price and bid-ask spread suggest the market is still assigning a meaningful but limited chance to such an intramonth spike.
Because the threshold is based on an intraday high, sharp rallies around major macro events matter more than the month-end close. U.S. inflation prints, Federal Reserve meetings, employment data, and surprise company earnings from large index members can all create the kind of one-minute spike that would matter here. Stock-split adjustments would also matter if they occurred, since the market will use split-adjusted Pyth data and adjust the target proportionally.
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+0.1%
24h Vol
$458.4K
Liquidity
$212.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 18% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key source of truth is Pyth’s SPY 1-minute candle history, using the published High field and only regular trading hours, not pre-market or after-hours trading. Readers should verify whether any candle in June 2026 reaches the adjusted $770 level after accounting for any corporate-action adjustments, since the rules say to use split-adjusted prices exactly as shown by Pyth. If there is ambiguity, it will most likely come from the timestamped historical candle data and whether the qualifying high occurred inside the official trading session.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 18%, $9.1K in 24h volume, and $3K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
18%
No
82%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 1, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during June 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "High" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000) If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 18%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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