
+0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$2M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Starmer say "Defense" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?. The market currently shows a live probability of 43%, and $56.9 in liquidity.
Probability
43%
24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$56.9
This market asks whether Keir Starmer will say the word “Defense” during his next appearance at Prime Minister’s Questions, the weekly Commons session where the prime minister answers questions from MPs. The word itself matters here because the contract resolves on any qualifying use, not on the broader topic of the exchange.
Keir Starmer is the named person, and the event is the next Prime Minister’s Questions session he participates in at Westminster. The market resolves Yes if he says “Defense” in that session, and No if he does not; the rules also say plural or possessive forms count, but other word forms do not. If no qualifying PMQs happens by the deadline, or if Starmer is no longer prime minister by then, the market resolves No.
PMQs is a tightly scripted but unpredictable political event, and a single word can hinge on the day’s questions, Starmer’s answers, and how he chooses to phrase policy points. “Defense” is a politically loaded term in UK politics because it can come up in discussions of security, spending, Ukraine, NATO, military readiness, or domestic policy priorities, but it is not guaranteed in any given session. That makes the market a narrow language test on a high-profile parliamentary stage rather than a broad forecast about policy direction.
The most important price-moving factor is the content of the next PMQs itself: if Starmer is expected to answer on military spending, foreign policy, or national security, the odds of hearing “Defense” rise. The wording of the session can matter too, because he only needs to say the exact listed term in any context, including possessive or pluralized forms. A change in the parliamentary schedule, Starmer’s attendance, or his status as prime minister would also affect resolution because the contract falls back to No if the qualifying event never happens by the deadline.
Related markets

+0.1%
24h Vol
$2M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 43% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should verify the exact PMQs date Starmer is scheduled to take part in, since the market resolves on the next event he participates in rather than on a general future appearance. The source of truth for the wording is the live transcript, official broadcast, or another authoritative record of the Commons session, and the rules explicitly exclude AI-generated audio or video. The deadline is June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, and the market also depends on Starmer still being prime minister by then; if that changes, the contract resolves No.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Starmer say "Defense" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?. The market currently shows a live probability of 43%, and $56.9 in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
42.5%
No
57.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 11, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
Keir Starmer is scheduled to participate in the Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) in the Commons Chamber in the Palace of Westminster on every Wednesday. (https://www.parliament.uk/visiting/visiting-and-tours/watch-committees-and-debates/prime-ministers-questions/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Keir Starmer says the listed term during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. If no such Prime Minister's Question Time event happens by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister for any length of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about scheduled events featuring Keir Starmer titled "Prime Minister's Question Time" (https://www.parallelparliament.co.uk/mp/keir-starmer/dept/cabinet-office/calendar). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of named, scheduled events will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 43%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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