
+0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$2M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Starmer say "Investment" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?. The market currently shows a live probability of 56%, $34 in 24h volume, and $76.3 in liquidity.
Probability
56%
24h Volume
$34
Liquidity
$76.3
This market asks whether Keir Starmer will say the word “investment” during his next Prime Minister’s Questions appearance in the House of Commons. PMQs is the weekly set-piece where the prime minister answers questions from MPs, so the wording of his replies is the entire point here: one spoken mention is enough to settle the market.
The event is Starmer’s next Prime Minister’s Questions session in the Commons Chamber at Westminster, with the market resolving on whether he uses the listed term during that appearance. The title is specific about the word “Investment,” and the rules say plural or possessive forms count, while other word forms do not; any usage in context counts, and AI-generated audio or video does not. If no such PMQs happens by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves No, and the rules also say that if Starmer is no longer prime minister by that deadline, that would matter to resolution, though the provided text is cut off before the full clause is shown.
This market is really about the unpredictable language of live parliamentary politics. Starmer often speaks on economic policy, public spending, growth, and business confidence, so a word like “investment” is plausible, but PMQs is a rapid-fire exchange where specific phrasing can vary a lot from week to week. The disagreement being priced is whether that exact wording will come up in his next turn at the despatch box.
Anything that changes the likelihood of Starmer talking about the economy, budgets, infrastructure, or business policy in his PMQs answers could matter, since those topics make the word “investment” more likely to appear. The market can also move simply as the next PMQs approaches, because the relevant evidence will be his actual spoken remarks in that session. If the topic list for PMQs suggests a focus on growth, spending, or public services, traders may see a higher chance of the term being used; if the exchange stays on unrelated issues, the chance may fall.
Related markets

+0.1%
24h Vol
$2M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 56% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key thing to verify is the official PMQs transcript, video, or another authoritative record of Starmer’s remarks in the next qualifying session. Because the rules count any usage of the exact term and include plural or possessive forms, readers should check for “investment,” “investments,” or “investment’s,” while remembering that other forms are excluded. The deadline is June 11, 2026 at 03:59 UTC, and the market also has a fallback No resolution if no qualifying PMQs occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; the incomplete rule about Starmer no longer being prime minister should be read carefully on the market page for the exact wording.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Starmer say "Investment" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?. The market currently shows a live probability of 56%, $34 in 24h volume, and $76.3 in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
56%
No
44%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 11, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
Keir Starmer is scheduled to participate in the Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) in the Commons Chamber in the Palace of Westminster on every Wednesday. (https://www.parliament.uk/visiting/visiting-and-tours/watch-committees-and-debates/prime-ministers-questions/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Keir Starmer says the listed term during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. If no such Prime Minister's Question Time event happens by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister for any length of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about scheduled events featuring Keir Starmer titled "Prime Minister's Question Time" (https://www.parallelparliament.co.uk/mp/keir-starmer/dept/cabinet-office/calendar). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of named, scheduled events will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 56%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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