
+0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$2M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Starmer say "Kid" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?. The market currently shows a live probability of 18%, and $106.2 in liquidity.
Probability
18%
24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$106.2
This market is about a very specific word-watch in the next Prime Minister’s Questions session involving Keir Starmer, the UK prime minister and Labour leader. The key issue is not policy substance but whether Starmer says the exact term “Kid” during his next appearance at PMQs, which is why the wording and transcript details matter. Because the market settles on a strict language rule, even a brief or offhand use can change the outcome.
Keir Starmer is expected to take part in Prime Minister’s Questions in the Commons Chamber at Westminster, and this market resolves on whether he says the listed term at that next PMQs event he participates in. The deadline shown on the market is June 11, 2026 at 03:59:00 UTC, and if no such PMQs event happens by then, the market resolves to No. The rules also say that if Starmer is no longer prime minister for any length of time before that deadline, the market resolves to No, so his role in office is part of the resolution frame.
This market exists because PMQs is a live, highly scripted but still unpredictable setting where a politician’s exact phrasing can be monitored word for word. Starmer’s speaking style, the topics raised by MPs, and whether he repeats, quotes, or reacts to a word can all create uncertainty about the final transcript. The market is pricing disagreement over a very narrow question: whether that exact term appears in his remarks before the cutoff.
The biggest price movers are anything that affects whether the next PMQs happens on schedule and whether Starmer is the one delivering answers. A Commons transcript, official video, or a clear spoken record showing the word “Kid” or a counted variant would strongly point toward Yes, while a PMQs session in which he never uses that word would support No. Because the rules count any use of the term regardless of context, even an incidental phrase, quote, or compound-word usage could matter if it appears in the recorded remarks.
Related markets

+0.1%
24h Vol
$2M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 18% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should check the official PMQs schedule, the House of Commons record, and the exact wording of Starmer’s spoken remarks rather than summaries or clips. The market rules are unusually specific: plural or possessive forms count, but other forms do not, and AI-generated audio or video does not count. The main ambiguity risk is whether a word appears in a way that clearly fits the rule set, so the cleanest source of truth is the official transcript or authoritative recording of the next PMQs Starmer participates in before June 11, 2026 at 03:59 UTC.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Starmer say "Kid" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?. The market currently shows a live probability of 18%, and $106.2 in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
18%
No
82%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 11, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
Keir Starmer is scheduled to participate in the Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) in the Commons Chamber in the Palace of Westminster on every Wednesday. (https://www.parliament.uk/visiting/visiting-and-tours/watch-committees-and-debates/prime-ministers-questions/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Keir Starmer says the listed term during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. If no such Prime Minister's Question Time event happens by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister for any length of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about scheduled events featuring Keir Starmer titled "Prime Minister's Question Time" (https://www.parallelparliament.co.uk/mp/keir-starmer/dept/cabinet-office/calendar). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of named, scheduled events will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 18%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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