
+0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$2M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?. The market currently shows a live probability of 32%, $1.4 in 24h volume, and $770.9 in liquidity.
Probability
32%
24h Volume
$1.4
Liquidity
$770.9
This market asks a very specific question about Keir Starmer’s next Prime Minister’s Questions appearance in the Commons Chamber: will he say the exact term "Mr. Speaker" at least 30 times? Because PMQs is a tightly structured weekly event with a live transcript and a formal speaking format, small wording details can make the difference between a yes and a no.
The subject is Keir Starmer, the UK prime minister, and his next appearance at Prime Minister’s Questions in the House of Commons. The market resolves "Yes" if, during that event, Starmer says "Mr. Speaker" 30 times or more; otherwise it resolves "No." The rules say any use of the listed term counts regardless of context, plural or possessive forms count, and compound-word uses count too, while other forms do not.
PMQs is one of the most formulaic events in Westminster, so repeated phrases can be counted and disputed in a fairly precise way. The uncertainty here is not about policy or politics in the broad sense, but about Starmer’s exact wording in a specific session and whether he reaches the 30-mention threshold. Readers care because the result depends on a narrow transcription-style count rather than on a general sense of how often he speaks.
Anything that changes the likely length or style of Starmer’s PMQs performance can matter, especially if he is expected to deliver a longer opening or follow-up exchange. A short session, interruptions, or a change in the usual back-and-forth could reduce the number of times he uses the phrase, while a more extended session could make 30 mentions more plausible. The market will also be sensitive to the exact counting rule for whether a phrase appears in a full-name, possessive, or compound form, because those details affect the final tally.
The current market price implies roughly a 32% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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+0.1%
24h Vol
$2M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketBefore this market resolves, readers should verify the actual PMQs session that Starmer participates in and whether it happens before the deadline listed on the page, which is June 11, 2026 at 03:59 UTC. The rule set also mentions a fallback cutoff of June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET if no such event happens, so the page’s date and the market’s closing language should be checked carefully. Most importantly, the final count should be based on the official wording or recording of the session, since AI-generated audio or video does not count and only the specific listed term forms are included.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?. The market currently shows a live probability of 32%, $1.4 in 24h volume, and $770.9 in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
32%
No
68%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 11, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
Keir Starmer is scheduled to participate in the Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) in the Commons Chamber in the Palace of Westminster on every Wednesday. (https://www.parliament.uk/visiting/visiting-and-tours/watch-committees-and-debates/prime-ministers-questions/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Keir Starmer says the listed term during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. If no such Prime Minister's Question Time event happens by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister for any length of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about scheduled events featuring Keir Starmer titled "Prime Minister's Question Time" (https://www.parallelparliament.co.uk/mp/keir-starmer/dept/cabinet-office/calendar). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of named, scheduled events will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 32%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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