
+0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$2M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Starmer say "Muslim" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?. The market currently shows a live probability of 29%, and $158.7 in liquidity.
Probability
29%
24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$158.7
This market asks whether Keir Starmer will say the word “Muslim” during his next appearance at Prime Minister’s Questions in the House of Commons. It is a very specific language-based event, so the outcome depends on the exact words spoken, not on the broader topic of the exchange.
The question centers on Starmer’s next Prime Minister’s Questions session, the weekly Commons event where the Prime Minister answers MPs in the Palace of Westminster. The market resolves to Yes if he says the listed term at that event, and No if he does not. According to the rules, plural or possessive forms count, but other word forms do not, and any use of the term in any context counts.
Markets like this hinge on uncertainty about parliamentary wording, not on policy outcomes. Starmer’s answers at PMQs are often responsive and unscripted enough that a particular word may or may not come up, even when the session’s broader subject is predictable. Because the term is tied to a politically sensitive and frequently discussed topic, readers may care both about whether it appears and about the exact language used in the chamber.
The price can move if the next PMQs agenda, opposition questions, or Starmer’s prepared remarks make it more likely that he will use the specific word. It can also shift if the scheduled session changes, if Starmer does not participate as expected, or if there is any event that affects whether he remains Prime Minister before the deadline. Since the market counts any spoken use of the term, even a brief reference in an answer or follow-up matters.
The current market price implies roughly a 29% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets

+0.1%
24h Vol
$2M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe key source of truth is the official PMQs event itself, since the market resolves from what Starmer says during that session. Readers should verify the exact transcript or reliable video/audio record of the next PMQs he participates in, and remember that AI-generated audio or video does not count. The deadline shown here is June 11, 2026, 03:59 UTC, and the rules also say the market resolves No if no qualifying PMQs occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or if Starmer is no longer Prime Minister by then.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Starmer say "Muslim" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?. The market currently shows a live probability of 29%, and $158.7 in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
29%
No
71%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 11, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
Keir Starmer is scheduled to participate in the Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) in the Commons Chamber in the Palace of Westminster on every Wednesday. (https://www.parliament.uk/visiting/visiting-and-tours/watch-committees-and-debates/prime-ministers-questions/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Keir Starmer says the listed term during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. If no such Prime Minister's Question Time event happens by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister for any length of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about scheduled events featuring Keir Starmer titled "Prime Minister's Question Time" (https://www.parallelparliament.co.uk/mp/keir-starmer/dept/cabinet-office/calendar). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of named, scheduled events will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 29%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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