
+0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.9M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Starmer say "NHS" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?. The market currently shows a live probability of 83%, $1.4K in 24h volume, and $58.2 in liquidity.
Probability
83%
24h Volume
$1.4K
Liquidity
$58.2
This market asks a very simple but specific question: will Keir Starmer say the word “NHS” during the next Prime Minister’s Questions he takes part in? It is worth watching because PMQs is a tightly watched weekly appearance in the Commons, and small wording choices can matter for resolution even when the broader topic is routine politics.
The event here is Prime Minister’s Questions in the House of Commons, where the Prime Minister appears in Parliament and answers questions from MPs. The market resolves “Yes” if Starmer says the listed term, “NHS,” during his next PMQs appearance, and “No” if he does not. The rules say any usage counts, including plural or possessive forms, but not other word forms, and AI-generated audio or video does not count.
This market is about a single-word check inside a live political appearance, which creates uncertainty even though PMQs itself is scheduled. Starmer may be asked about health policy, public services, or other issues where the NHS could come up naturally, but he may also avoid the term entirely depending on the questions and his answers. The uncertainty is not about whether PMQs happens in general, but about whether this specific word is uttered in that specific session.
The biggest price moves will usually come from the PMQs agenda, the questions Starmer faces, and whether the exchange turns toward health policy, waiting lists, funding, or other NHS-related issues. If Starmer delivers an answer that plainly says “NHS,” the market would quickly move toward Yes; if the session is dominated by unrelated topics, the No side becomes more plausible. Because the market resolves on a very narrow transcript-style condition, even a brief passing mention matters.
The current market price implies roughly a 83% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets

+0.1%
24h Vol
$1.9M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketReaders should verify the exact resolution window: this market is for the next PMQs event Starmer participates in, and it has a fallback No resolution if no such event occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or if Starmer is no longer Prime Minister by then. The source of truth is the official parliamentary record or a reliable transcript/video of the PMQs session, with the wording rule applied exactly as written. One detail to watch is that the market description appears truncated after the clause about Starmer ceasing to be Prime Minister, so the full rule text should be checked on the market page if there is any ambiguity about the fallback condition.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Starmer say "NHS" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?. The market currently shows a live probability of 83%, $1.4K in 24h volume, and $58.2 in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
82.5%
No
17.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 11, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
Keir Starmer is scheduled to participate in the Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) in the Commons Chamber in the Palace of Westminster on every Wednesday. (https://www.parliament.uk/visiting/visiting-and-tours/watch-committees-and-debates/prime-ministers-questions/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Keir Starmer says the listed term during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. If no such Prime Minister's Question Time event happens by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister for any length of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about scheduled events featuring Keir Starmer titled "Prime Minister's Question Time" (https://www.parallelparliament.co.uk/mp/keir-starmer/dept/cabinet-office/calendar). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of named, scheduled events will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.
Probability signal
The current price implies a strong favorite, so new information would need to be meaningful to move the market sharply.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 83%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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