
+0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$2M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Starmer say "Police" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?. The market currently shows a live probability of 66%, and $120.4 in liquidity.
Probability
66%
24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$120.4
This market asks whether Keir Starmer will say the word “police” at his next Prime Minister’s Questions appearance in the House of Commons. Because PMQs is a tightly timed, scripted political exchange, a single word can decide the outcome, which makes the exact wording of Starmer’s answers unusually important.
The event is the next Prime Minister’s Questions session that Starmer participates in, with resolution based on whether he says the listed term during that appearance. The rules are broad: any use of “police” counts, including plural or possessive forms, and the word can appear in any context. The market currently has an end date of June 11, 2026, but the description also says it falls back to No if no qualifying PMQs happens by June 30, 2026, or if Starmer is no longer Prime Minister by that deadline; the final sentence of the rules is cut off, so readers should verify the full resolution text on the market page.
PMQs is one of the most visible moments in UK politics, and Starmer’s answers are often shaped by the specific questions he faces. Whether he says “police” will usually depend on the day’s topics, the opposition’s line of attack, and how he chooses to frame the government’s response on crime, law enforcement, or public safety. The market is really pricing the chance that the word comes up naturally in his remarks, rather than any broader policy outcome.
The biggest driver is the subject matter of the next PMQs session: questions about crime, policing, disorder, courts, or public safety make the word more likely to appear. A brief, direct answer from Starmer can be enough to include the term, while a session focused on other issues could leave it out entirely. Because the resolution counts any usage, even a passing reference, the price can shift with expectations about the topics raised and the style of Starmer’s responses.
Related markets

+0.1%
24h Vol
$2M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 66% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Check the date of Starmer’s next PMQs appearance and the official Commons record or transcript, since the market resolves on what he actually says in that session. The key source of truth is the spoken record, not paraphrases, clips, or AI-generated audio and video, which the rules exclude. Also verify the exact wording of the resolution clause on the market page, because the fallback deadline and the truncated final sentence matter if the next PMQs is delayed or Starmer is no longer Prime Minister before June 30, 2026.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Starmer say "Police" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?. The market currently shows a live probability of 66%, and $120.4 in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
65.5%
No
34.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 11, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
Keir Starmer is scheduled to participate in the Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) in the Commons Chamber in the Palace of Westminster on every Wednesday. (https://www.parliament.uk/visiting/visiting-and-tours/watch-committees-and-debates/prime-ministers-questions/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Keir Starmer says the listed term during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. If no such Prime Minister's Question Time event happens by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister for any length of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about scheduled events featuring Keir Starmer titled "Prime Minister's Question Time" (https://www.parallelparliament.co.uk/mp/keir-starmer/dept/cabinet-office/calendar). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of named, scheduled events will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 66%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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