
+0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$2M
Liquidity
$1.5M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Starmer say "Poverty" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?. The market currently shows a live probability of 51%, and $130.9 in liquidity.
Probability
51%
24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$130.9
This market asks a very specific question about Keir Starmer’s next appearance at Prime Minister’s Questions in the House of Commons: will he say the word “poverty”? Because PMQs is a live, unscripted exchange, the answer depends on the exact wording he uses in that session, not on the broader topic of the debate.
The event is the next Prime Minister’s Questions session Starmer participates in, with a fallback deadline of June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET if no such session occurs sooner. The market resolves Yes if Starmer says “poverty” during that PMQs event; any use of the exact listed term counts, including plural or possessive forms, while other word forms do not. The rules also say the term counts even in compounds, and only Starmer’s speech in the chamber matters.
PMQs is one of the most closely watched moments in UK politics because it gives the opposition leader a chance to press the prime minister on current issues in front of Parliament and the public. The word “poverty” is politically meaningful because it often comes up in debates over living standards, welfare, inequality, and public services, but there is still uncertainty over whether Starmer will choose that language in a particular exchange. This market is really pricing the chance that his answers, attacks, or follow-up remarks include that exact term.
The price can move if the upcoming PMQs agenda clearly points toward cost of living, welfare, child poverty, housing, or public spending, since those themes make the word more likely to appear. It can also shift if the question format or Starmer’s likely lines of attack suggest he may use “poverty” directly in a broader political argument rather than sticking to other phrases like “low income” or “deprivation.” Any change in the timing of PMQs, or in Starmer’s ability to participate, matters because the market resolves No if no qualifying event happens by the deadline.
Related markets

+0.1%
24h Vol
$2M
Liquidity
$1.5M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 51% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should verify two things before the market settles: whether Starmer actually takes part in the next PMQs session, and whether the official or video record shows him saying the exact term under the market rules. The source of truth is the Commons Chamber appearance itself, with the deadline acting as a backstop if no eligible PMQs happens. One ambiguity to watch is that the rules count the listed term in specific forms and in compounds, so the exact transcript or video matters more than a paraphrase of what he meant.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Starmer say "Poverty" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?. The market currently shows a live probability of 51%, and $130.9 in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
50.5%
No
49.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 11, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
Keir Starmer is scheduled to participate in the Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) in the Commons Chamber in the Palace of Westminster on every Wednesday. (https://www.parliament.uk/visiting/visiting-and-tours/watch-committees-and-debates/prime-ministers-questions/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Keir Starmer says the listed term during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. If no such Prime Minister's Question Time event happens by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister for any length of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about scheduled events featuring Keir Starmer titled "Prime Minister's Question Time" (https://www.parallelparliament.co.uk/mp/keir-starmer/dept/cabinet-office/calendar). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of named, scheduled events will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 51%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

-1%
24h Vol
$1M
Liquidity
$332.8K
Spread
0%
6/7/2026
View market
--
24h Vol
$2.3M
Liquidity
$69.3K
Spread
0%
6/7/2026
View market
-0.8%
24h Vol
$571.9K
Liquidity
$444.7K
Spread
0%
11/7/2028
View market
+0.5%
24h Vol
$1.3M
Liquidity
$766K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View market
--
24h Vol
$109.3K
Liquidity
$1.1M
Spread
0%
11/7/2028
View market