
+0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$2M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Starmer say "Transportation" or "Transport" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?. The market currently shows a live probability of 28%, and $84.6 in liquidity.
Probability
28%
24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$84.6
This market asks whether Keir Starmer will say either “Transportation” or “Transport” during his next appearance at Prime Minister’s Questions in the Commons Chamber. It is a narrow wording bet on a live parliamentary event, so the exact phrase matters more than the topic being discussed.
Prime Minister’s Questions, usually held on Wednesdays in the House of Commons, is the weekly session where the Prime Minister answers MPs directly. Here, the outcome is determined by whether Starmer says the listed term during the next PMQs event he participates in before the market deadline of June 11, 2026, 03:59 UTC. The market resolves “Yes” if he says the term in any context, including possessive or plural forms, and “No” otherwise.
This market is about the uncertainty around exact wording in a fast-moving political exchange. Starmer may discuss rail, roads, buses, or broader infrastructure, but there is no guarantee he will use the specific word “transport” or the longer form “transportation” on that occasion. Because the rules count any usage of the term, even a brief or incidental mention can change the result.
The biggest driver is the content of the next PMQs itself: if Starmer is likely to answer questions on infrastructure, transit, rail strikes, or departmental policy, the chance of one of these words appearing rises. Party briefing, the topics raised by MPs, and the way Starmer frames his answers can all matter, especially since the market counts ordinary spoken usage rather than a formal policy announcement. A transcript, official video, or other clear recording of the session would settle the question under the market rules.
The current market price implies roughly a 28% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets

+0.1%
24h Vol
$2M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketReaders should check the exact resolution rule and the deadline, because the market settles on Starmer’s next PMQs appearance, not just any public speech. The description says AI-generated audio or video will not count, so the source of truth is the real parliamentary event or an authoritative transcript/video of that session. There is also a fallback condition in the description if no such PMQs occurs by the cutoff, and a reader should verify the full rule text on the market page in case of any edge cases or wording changes.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Starmer say "Transportation" or "Transport" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?. The market currently shows a live probability of 28%, and $84.6 in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
28%
No
72%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 11, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
Keir Starmer is scheduled to participate in the Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) in the Commons Chamber in the Palace of Westminster on every Wednesday. (https://www.parliament.uk/visiting/visiting-and-tours/watch-committees-and-debates/prime-ministers-questions/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Keir Starmer says the listed term during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. If no such Prime Minister's Question Time event happens by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister for any length of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about scheduled events featuring Keir Starmer titled "Prime Minister's Question Time" (https://www.parallelparliament.co.uk/mp/keir-starmer/dept/cabinet-office/calendar). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of named, scheduled events will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 28%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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