
+0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$2M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?. The market currently shows a live probability of 29%, and $173.4 in liquidity.
Probability
29%
24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$173.4
This market asks a very narrow but concrete question: will Keir Starmer say the word “Trump” during the next Prime Minister’s Questions session he takes part in? PMQs is a weekly Commons event where the UK prime minister answers questions from MPs, so the wording of his answers matters here more than the political topic itself.
The event is the next Prime Minister’s Questions appearance by Keir Starmer in the House of Commons. The market resolves to Yes if he says the listed term, “Trump,” at any point during that session, and No if he does not. The rules say any usage counts regardless of context, but plural or possessive forms count only in the way the market specifies, and AI-generated audio or video does not count.
This market centers on a simple language check inside a highly visible parliamentary appearance. Starmer may be asked about US politics, international affairs, or Donald Trump directly, but he also might avoid the name entirely even while discussing related issues, which is why the outcome is uncertain. The disagreement being priced is not about policy so much as whether that exact word will come out in this specific session.
Anything that changes the shape of the next PMQs can move this market: the questions Starmer faces, the topics dominating the session, and whether Trump, US politics, or transatlantic issues come up in the chamber. Because the resolution is based on the exact spoken term, readers should pay attention to the transcript or video of Starmer’s remarks, not just headlines about what was discussed. The market also becomes moot only if the specified PMQs event does not happen by the deadline or if Starmer is no longer prime minister before that cutoff.
The current market price implies roughly a 29% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets

+0.1%
24h Vol
$2M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe key source of truth is the actual PMQs appearance in the Commons Chamber, since the rules count the term if Starmer says it in that session and ignore AI-generated audio or video. Watch for the exact wording, because the market is about the literal term “Trump,” not a general reference to the former US president unless that name is spoken. The deadline in the rules is June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the provided end date on the page is June 11, 2026, 03:59 UTC, so readers should verify which cutoff applies on the market page if there is any ambiguity.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?. The market currently shows a live probability of 29%, and $173.4 in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
29%
No
71%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 11, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
Keir Starmer is scheduled to participate in the Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) in the Commons Chamber in the Palace of Westminster on every Wednesday. (https://www.parliament.uk/visiting/visiting-and-tours/watch-committees-and-debates/prime-ministers-questions/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Keir Starmer says the listed term during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. If no such Prime Minister's Question Time event happens by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister for any length of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about scheduled events featuring Keir Starmer titled "Prime Minister's Question Time" (https://www.parallelparliament.co.uk/mp/keir-starmer/dept/cabinet-office/calendar). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of named, scheduled events will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 29%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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