
+0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$2M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Starmer say "Ukraine" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?. The market currently shows a live probability of 50%, $124.8 in 24h volume, and $108.2 in liquidity.
Probability
50%
24h Volume
$124.8
Liquidity
$108.2
This market asks a very specific question about Keir Starmer’s appearance at Prime Minister’s Questions: will he say the word “Ukraine” during his next PMQs session? Because PMQs is a short, tightly scripted parliamentary event, even a single word can determine the outcome, which makes the wording and the official record especially important.
The event is the next Prime Minister’s Questions in the House of Commons, where the Prime Minister answers questions from MPs. The market resolves to Yes if Starmer says the listed term, “Ukraine,” at that session; otherwise it resolves to No. The rules say any use of the exact term counts regardless of context, but plural or possessive forms are also counted, while other forms are not, and AI-generated audio or video does not count.
This market is about whether a specific foreign-policy term comes up in Starmer’s next PMQs exchange. Ukraine is a major topic in UK politics because it can surface in questions about war, diplomacy, defense, aid, and European security, but PMQs also depends on the day’s political agenda and the opposition’s line of questioning. That means there is genuine uncertainty over whether the word will be spoken at all, even if the subject remains politically relevant.
The main things that would move this market are the contents of the next PMQs agenda and how Starmer answers questions on the day. If MPs steer the session toward war, security, sanctions, or international affairs, the chance of hearing “Ukraine” rises; if the questioning focuses on domestic issues such as the economy, health, or housing, it falls. The market can also move quickly if Starmer uses the term in a prepared answer, a clarification, or a brief follow-up exchange.
The current market price implies roughly a 50% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets

+0.1%
24h Vol
$2M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketReaders should verify the exact PMQs date and then check the official parliamentary record or reliable video transcript of Starmer’s participation. The resolution hinges on the literal appearance of the word “Ukraine,” so it is worth watching for exact wording, possessive or plural forms, and whether the term is spoken aloud in the chamber. The market also has a deadline of June 11, 2026 at 03:59 UTC on the page, and the rules say it resolves to No if no such PMQs event happens by the stated cutoff or if Starmer is no longer Prime Minister by the final resolution window.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Starmer say "Ukraine" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?. The market currently shows a live probability of 50%, $124.8 in 24h volume, and $108.2 in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
50%
No
50%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 11, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
Keir Starmer is scheduled to participate in the Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) in the Commons Chamber in the Palace of Westminster on every Wednesday. (https://www.parliament.uk/visiting/visiting-and-tours/watch-committees-and-debates/prime-ministers-questions/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Keir Starmer says the listed term during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. If no such Prime Minister's Question Time event happens by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister for any length of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about scheduled events featuring Keir Starmer titled "Prime Minister's Question Time" (https://www.parallelparliament.co.uk/mp/keir-starmer/dept/cabinet-office/calendar). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of named, scheduled events will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 50%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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