
+0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$2M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Starmer say "United States" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?. The market currently shows a live probability of 32%, and $74.5 in liquidity.
Probability
32%
24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$74.5
This market asks a very specific question about Keir Starmer’s next Prime Minister’s Questions appearance: will he say the words “United States” at all? It is a narrow language-based market, so the exact wording matters more than the policy topic being discussed. The title also matters because PMQs is a set parliamentary exchange where brief answers and interruptions can make word choice unpredictable.
The event in question is the next Prime Minister’s Questions session in the Commons Chamber at Westminster that Keir Starmer participates in. The market resolves to Yes if Starmer says the term “United States” during that appearance, and No if he does not. According to the rules, any use of the term counts regardless of context, and plural or possessive forms count as well; other forms do not. AI-generated audio or video does not count toward resolution.
This market exists because parliamentary questioning often touches on foreign policy, trade, defense, and diplomacy, but no one can know in advance whether Starmer will use this exact phrase in his prepared answers or exchanges. The phrase “United States” can come up naturally in discussions of international relations, yet it is still a coin-flip style language event because PMQs is fast-moving and tightly timed. The market is pricing disagreement about whether that specific wording will appear in his next session.
Any sign that Starmer’s PMQs will focus on U.S. relations, transatlantic policy, or a topic likely to invite comparison with the United States could make “Yes” more plausible. On the other hand, a session centered on domestic issues with little reason to mention another country would push the market toward “No.” Because the rule is about exact wording, even a speech that is clearly about America will not count unless he actually says “United States” or a counted variant such as a possessive or plural form.
Related markets

+0.1%
24h Vol
$2M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 32% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should verify the exact PMQs session Starmer participates in, because the market resolves on the next one and not on any later appearance. The source of truth is the parliamentary record or a complete official transcript/video of that session, since the rules require an actual spoken mention and exclude AI-generated audio or video. The market’s listed end date is June 11, 2026 at 03:59 UTC, while the rules also say that if no such PMQs happens by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, it resolves No; that timing mismatch is worth checking carefully before the page settles.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Starmer say "United States" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?. The market currently shows a live probability of 32%, and $74.5 in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
31.5%
No
68.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 11, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
Keir Starmer is scheduled to participate in the Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) in the Commons Chamber in the Palace of Westminster on every Wednesday. (https://www.parliament.uk/visiting/visiting-and-tours/watch-committees-and-debates/prime-ministers-questions/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Keir Starmer says the listed term during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. If no such Prime Minister's Question Time event happens by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister for any length of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about scheduled events featuring Keir Starmer titled "Prime Minister's Question Time" (https://www.parallelparliament.co.uk/mp/keir-starmer/dept/cabinet-office/calendar). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of named, scheduled events will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 32%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

-1.1%
24h Vol
$969.1K
Liquidity
$428.9K
Spread
0%
6/7/2026
View market
--
24h Vol
$2.3M
Liquidity
$69.3K
Spread
0%
6/7/2026
View market
-0.5%
24h Vol
$579.4K
Liquidity
$428.2K
Spread
0%
11/7/2028
View market
+0.5%
24h Vol
$1.3M
Liquidity
$744.9K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View market
--
24h Vol
$101.6K
Liquidity
$1.1M
Spread
0%
11/7/2028
View market