
+0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$2M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Starmer say "Urgent" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?. The market currently shows a live probability of 31%, and $85.9 in liquidity.
Probability
31%
24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$85.9
This market asks whether Keir Starmer will say the word “Urgent” during his next Prime Minister’s Questions appearance in the Commons Chamber at Westminster. It is a tightly defined speech-content question, so the result depends on the exact wording Starmer uses in that one PMQs session, not on the broader political debate.
Prime Minister’s Questions, or PMQs, is the weekly Commons session where the Prime Minister answers questions from MPs, and Starmer is expected to take part on Wednesdays while he remains in office. The market resolves “Yes” if he says the listed term, “Urgent,” in that next PMQs event; otherwise it resolves “No.” The rules say any use of the exact term counts, including plural or possessive forms, but other word forms do not, and AI-generated audio or video does not count.
This is an uncertainty market about the language Starmer chooses in a live parliamentary exchange. PMQs is highly scripted in form but not in wording, so even a common word like “urgent” may or may not appear depending on the questions, rebuttals, and his phrasing that day. Readers watching this market are effectively weighing how likely the word is to come up naturally in a short political back-and-forth.
The main price movers are anything that changes the odds Starmer uses the exact word in the next session: the question topics chosen by MPs, whether he responds by emphasizing an immediate issue, and whether the exchange turns to a crisis, deadline, or policy timetable that invites that word. The market can also move as the next PMQs date gets closer, because there are fewer chances left for the term to appear before the deadline. The posted live signals currently show the market leaning toward “No,” with a wide bid-ask spread and low liquidity, so individual trades may shift the displayed price sharply.
Related markets

+0.1%
24h Vol
$2M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 31% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key things to verify are the exact next PMQs date Starmer actually participates in, whether he is still Prime Minister by the market deadline, and whether the word “Urgent” appears in his spoken remarks in the official session record or another approved source used for resolution. The rules are strict about wording, so readers should check whether the term appears as written, including possessive or plural forms, but not as other word forms or in AI-generated media. Because the market description cuts off after saying the market resolves to “No” if Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister, it is worth checking the full rule set on the page for the complete resolution language before relying on the outcome.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Starmer say "Urgent" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?. The market currently shows a live probability of 31%, and $85.9 in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
30.5%
No
69.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 11, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
Keir Starmer is scheduled to participate in the Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) in the Commons Chamber in the Palace of Westminster on every Wednesday. (https://www.parliament.uk/visiting/visiting-and-tours/watch-committees-and-debates/prime-ministers-questions/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Keir Starmer says the listed term during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. If no such Prime Minister's Question Time event happens by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister for any length of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about scheduled events featuring Keir Starmer titled "Prime Minister's Question Time" (https://www.parallelparliament.co.uk/mp/keir-starmer/dept/cabinet-office/calendar). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of named, scheduled events will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 31%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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