economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
+0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$2M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Starmer say "Victim" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?. The market currently shows a live probability of 28%, $28.4 in 24h volume, and $45 in liquidity.
Probability
28%
24h Volume
$28.4
Liquidity
$45
This market is about a very specific parliamentary moment: the next Prime Minister’s Questions session that Keir Starmer takes part in, and whether he says the word “victim” at any point during that appearance. Because PMQs is a live, unscripted exchange in the Commons, small wording choices can matter, which is why this kind of term-specific market can stay uncertain right up to the session itself.
Keir Starmer, as UK Prime Minister, is scheduled to appear at Prime Minister’s Questions in the House of Commons on Wednesdays. The market resolves to “Yes” if he says the listed term, “victim,” during the next PMQs event he participates in; any use of the exact term counts, including plural or possessive forms, and compound-word usage also counts under the market rules. If he does not say it in that session, the result is “No,” and if no qualifying PMQs happens by the stated cutoff, the market also resolves to “No.”
PMQs is a highly controlled but still conversational setting, so the presence or absence of one ordinary word can depend on the questions he is asked, the subject under discussion, and how he chooses to answer. “Victim” is a common political and legal term, so it could appear in debates about crime, public services, or personal testimony, but it is far from guaranteed in any single session. The market is pricing a narrow language event rather than a policy outcome, which makes the uncertainty much more about phrasing than about politics in the abstract.
The biggest driver is the content of the next PMQs: if the opposition frames questions around crime, abuse, civil disorder, compensation, or personal harm, the word may become more likely to come up in Starmer’s reply. A change in the order of business, a cancellation, or Starmer not participating would matter because the market only counts the next PMQs event he actually takes part in. Any official change to the resolution rules, or an announcement that Starmer is no longer Prime Minister before the deadline, would also force attention to the market’s “No” condition.
Related markets
+0.1%
24h Vol
$2M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 28% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should check the actual transcript, video, or another authoritative record of the relevant PMQs session, because the market resolves on whether Starmer said the exact term in that event, not on headlines or summaries. The deadline in the market rules is June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, and the end date shown on the page is June 11, 2026 at 03:59 UTC, so it is important to verify which cutoff applies on the platform. One ambiguity to watch is the word-form rule: plural and possessive forms count, but other forms do not, and AI-generated audio or video does not count toward resolution.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Starmer say "Victim" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?. The market currently shows a live probability of 28%, $28.4 in 24h volume, and $45 in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
28.5%
No
71.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 11, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
Keir Starmer is scheduled to participate in the Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) in the Commons Chamber in the Palace of Westminster on every Wednesday. (https://www.parliament.uk/visiting/visiting-and-tours/watch-committees-and-debates/prime-ministers-questions/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Keir Starmer says the listed term during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. If no such Prime Minister's Question Time event happens by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister for any length of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about scheduled events featuring Keir Starmer titled "Prime Minister's Question Time" (https://www.parallelparliament.co.uk/mp/keir-starmer/dept/cabinet-office/calendar). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of named, scheduled events will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 28%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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