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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$479.4K
Liquidity
$247.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 Week of June 1 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $932 in 24h volume, and $5.5K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$932
Liquidity
$5.5K
This market asks whether spot gold, quoted as XAUUSD, will trade high enough during the week of June 1, 2026 to hit $4,650 on a 1-minute candle. It is worth watching because gold is a heavily traded macro asset, and a sharp move can be driven by inflation expectations, central bank policy, geopolitical stress, or sudden shifts in the U.S. dollar. The contract is set to resolve by the end of the week, with Pyth’s published prices as the source of truth.
The question is simple: will Gold (XAUUSD) print a 1-minute candle with a High or Low price at or beyond $4,650 during the specified week? The market resolves according to Pyth’s Gold (XAUUSD) High and Low values on 1-minute candles, and only trading-session prices during the week of June 1, 2026 count. The listed resolution deadline is June 5, 2026, so readers should treat that week—not later moves—as the relevant window.
The uncertainty here is whether gold can reach a very specific price threshold within a short time frame. Gold often reacts to rate expectations, real yields, currency moves, and risk sentiment, so a level like $4,650 is a concrete test of how far the market can extend during that week. The current order book shows the market leaning strongly toward a “No” outcome, but the contract is still about whether the published Pyth feed ever touches the threshold before the deadline.
Any sharp move in XAUUSD during the week could matter, especially a jump in the intraday high rather than just the closing price. Because the contract keys off 1-minute highs and lows, a brief spike through $4,650 would be enough even if price does not stay there. Traders watching this market should pay attention to session hours, holiday adjustments, and any Pyth feed or contract-specification changes that could affect how the threshold is measured.
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24h Vol
$479.4K
Liquidity
$247.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before this market resolves, the most important thing to verify is the exact Pyth chart used for resolution: Gold (XAUUSD), 1-minute candles, with High and Low prices matched exactly as published. The contract only counts the trading session for the week of June 1, 2026, so the Sunday-to-Friday session boundaries and the daily 5:00 PM to 6:00 PM ET break matter. If there is any feed change or special-session adjustment, the market rules say adjusted Pyth prices will control, so those details are the main source of ambiguity to watch.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 Week of June 1 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $932 in 24h volume, and $5.5K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
0.1%
No
100%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 5, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of the week of June 1, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe’s business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Gold (XAUUSD) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the relevant CME COMEX futures contract for the underlying metal—COMEX Gold Futures (GC)—may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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