
+0.1%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$458.4K
Liquidity
$212.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 5?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $15.4K in 24h volume, and $65.3K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$15.4K
Liquidity
$65.3K
This market asks whether the closing price of gold, quoted as XAUUSD, will finish June 5, 2026 above or below the previous trading day’s close. Because gold is a major global asset and its price can move quickly around U.S. economic data, Federal Reserve expectations, and dollar moves, even a one-day comparison can be surprisingly contentious.
The event is a straight comparison of two official closing prices for Gold (XAUUSD): the close on June 5, 2026 versus the most recent prior trading day’s close. If June 5 is not a trading day under Pyth’s trading-hours schedule, or if gold does not trade during the relevant session, the market resolves 50-50; if the two closes are exactly equal, it also resolves 50-50. The market uses the closing prices exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
Gold often trades on macro expectations rather than one single headline, so the question here is whether the metal ends the session higher or lower than the last close. That makes the market sensitive to shifting views on inflation, interest rates, the U.S. dollar, and safe-haven demand, all of which can pull gold in either direction over a single day. The current market signal is heavily tilted toward Down, which suggests traders see a weaker close as more likely than a higher one.
Fresh U.S. inflation, jobs, or growth data can change rate-cut expectations and quickly move gold. Commentary or decisions from the Federal Reserve, along with sharp moves in Treasury yields or the dollar, can also matter because gold is priced in USD and competes with yield-bearing assets. In addition, risk-off headlines, geopolitical stress, or abrupt commodity-market moves can push gold higher, while stronger risk appetite can do the opposite.
The current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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+0.1%
24h Vol
$458.4K
Liquidity
$212.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketReaders should check the exact Pyth trading-hours schedule for Gold (XAUUSD) to confirm whether June 5 is a valid trading day and which close will be used as the comparison point. The key source of truth is the published Pyth close for June 5 and the prior trading day’s close, since the market settles strictly on those values rather than on intraday highs or lows. The main ambiguity to watch for is any special-session or holiday schedule change, because that can alter which session counts as the relevant close or trigger a 50-50 resolution.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 5?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $15.4K in 24h volume, and $65.3K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Up
0.1%
Down
100%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 5, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on June 5, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on June 5, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, the market will resolve 50-50. Trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours trading-hours as listed on Pyth. If a listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. For each trading day, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET on that date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved prior to 4:59 PM ET during that trading day as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the closing price for that day may be determined using the official daily close price of the CME COMEX Gold Futures (GC) futures contract for that trading day. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session will be considered. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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